How Odds Are Set

When talking about sports betting, bettors mention the odds of the game. In a casino table game, the odds are set up based on the chance of a particular hand or roll will happen. It is more likely someone will get a two of a kind in poker, rather than a royal flush, so the odds are higher for the flush, with a bigger pay out.

But the outcome in a sports contest is vague. There is a saying that on any given Sunday, any team can win. True, there will always be teams that are better than others, but it is equally true that, unlike a card game, a sports event have more extenuating circumstances that need to be factored in, like a dome team playing outdoors, injuries, and the like. Plus, two teams or competitors may be virtually even, on paper.

So how are the odds set in sports if everything is a wide-open chance?

It Starts in Las Vegas

Las Vegas Sports Consultants, Inc. establishes the odds for nearly every sportsbook in Nevada. These odds are reported in newspapers and other venues across the country as “information for entertainment purposes only.” However illegal sports books use these odds for their own business use.

The sports odds themselves act as a contract between the bookmaker and the bettor. The odds determine what the payout will be to a winner. The odds are usually presented as a ratio, meaning for every dollar bet, it is multiplied by the odds.

In sports, the odds are not set in stone once the betting begins. Instead they fluctuate as more people place bets with the bookmaker. For example, an injury to a key player for the favorite has bettors placing their wagers on the underdog, so the bookie decides to lower the odds so the payout won’t be as high. Once the original odds come out of Las Vegas, individual sportbooks have the right to change those odds based on the situation. Another bookie may not be seeing the same rush to bet on the underdog and keeps his odds the same.

What Goes into Picking the Odds?

To determine the odds for sporting events, much is taken into consideration, for example, the records of the two teams competing, strength of schedule, how they fare against mutual opponents, total points for versus total points against, and so on. There are also situations that are individual to a specific game, such as historic domination of one team over another, or the ace pitcher in one game makes his team the favorite but in the next game a pitcher with a higher ERA makes that same team the underdog.